Top 10 Countries with Declining Population
Overview
Importance of studying top 10 countries with declining population cannot be overstated. Imagine a world where bustling cities grow eerily quiet, schools echo with emptiness, and once-thriving communities fade into obscurity. This isn’t the plot of a dystopian novel; it’s the stark reality facing several nations grappling with declining populations. For instance, Italy has witnessed a record low in births, with only 370,000 in 2024, marking the 16th consecutive year of decline.
Similarly, Japan’s population has been decreasing since 2008, leading to economic and social challenges. In this article by Academic Block, we will explore top 10 countries that are facing significant population decline and are expected to lose more population by 2050, dive into the underlying reasons behind these trends, and examine the potential consequences on their economies and societies.
List of countries with fastest declining population
In a striking demographic shift, several nations are witnessing unprecedented rates of population decline, with Eastern Europe and East Asia leading the trend. As per the latest data, names in the list of countries affected by fastest decline in population are, (1) Bosnia and Herzegovina, (2) Latvia, (3) Lithuania, (4) Bulgaria, (5) Moldova, (6) Croatia, (7) Albania, (8) Serbia, (9) Japan, and (10) Ukraine. These nations are not only shrinking in population size but also facing urgent economic and social restructuring to cope with the fallout.
Comprehensive data about the status of the countries affected by the population decline is presented in the table below:
Table 1. Population Decline Projections (2024–2050)
Experts warn if current trends persist, these countries will face a sharp downturn, with demographers forecasting a major population decline due to a mix of low birth rates, migration, aging, low fertility and brain drain. These figures are not just statistical warnings—but they reflect real looming economic crises, labor shortages, and shifting national identities that demand urgent policy intervention.
Key Factors Driving the Population Decline
-
Sub-replacement Fertility Rates : Many countries now have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1, leading to natural population decline. Below is the list of major countries in the world with the lowest fertility rates:
-
Aging Population : Advancements in healthcare have increased life expectancy, resulting in a higher proportion of elderly individuals and a shrinking workforce.
-
Economic Pressures : High living costs, job insecurity, and expensive childcare deter individuals from having larger families.
-
Social Stress and Lifestyle Change : Increased social stress, including that from social media, may suppress reproductive behavior and physiology.
-
Increased Dependency Ratios : A declining working-age population coupled with a growing elderly population increases the economic burden on the workforce.
-
Urbanization and Migration : Migration from rural to urban areas and emigration from certain countries also reduces population in those regions. We can find the current information on the countries with the highest net migration rates in the table below, it heighlights latest migration trends and demographic shifts.
-
Delayed Marriages and Childbearing : Societal shifts towards later marriages and childbearing contribute to lower birth rates.
-
Environmental Concerns : Concerns about overpopulation’s impact on the environment lead some to choose smaller families.
-
Government Policies : Some policies, like China’s former one-child policy, have long-term effects on population growth.
-
Healthcare Access and Mortality Rates : Inadequate healthcare in certain regions leads to higher mortality rates, impacting population growth.
Table 2: Countries With the Lowest Fertility Rates in 2024
Table 3: Top Countries and their Net Migration Rate
Government Policies by Country: Population-Related Policies and Year Implemented
-
China – One-Child Policy (1979) : Introduced to curb overpopulation, limiting most families to a single child.
-
China – Two-Child Policy (2016) : Replaced the one-child policy, allowing two children per family to address aging demographics.
-
China – Three-Child Policy (2021) : Permitted families to have three children in response to declining birth rates.
-
Vietnam – Two-Child Policy (1993) : Encouraged families to have no more than two children to stabilize population growth.
-
Singapore – Pro-Natalist Policies (1987) : Shifted to encouraging larger families due to declining birth rates.
-
Iran – Pro-Natalist Shift (2006) : Reversed earlier policies to encourage population growth amid declining birth rates.
-
South Korea – Low Fertility Countermeasures (2006) : Introduced incentives like childcare support to boost birth rates.
-
Hungary – Family Protection Action Plan (2019) : Offered financial incentives to families to increase fertility rates.
-
Russia – Maternity Capital Program (2007) : Provided financial benefits to families with multiple children to encourage higher birth rates.
-
Germany – Elterngeld Policy (2007) : Provided income-based parental benefits to promote family growth.
-
Australia – Baby Bonus Scheme (2004) : Offered financial incentives for childbirth to boost population growth.
Responses and Strategies by Countries that are facing rapid Population Decline
Governments facing population decline are adopting multifaceted strategies to address demographic challenges. Here are key measures implemented by various countries :
-
Financial Incentives for Families : Countries like China offer childbirth subsidies and tax relief to encourage larger families.
-
Enhanced Parental Leave Policies : Japan has expanded maternity and paternity leave to support work-life balance and increase birth rates.
-
Subsidized Childcare Services : South Korea provides affordable childcare to reduce the financial burden on families.
-
Immigration Reforms : Japan has introduced visa programs to attract foreign workers, addressing labor shortages due to declining populations.
-
Public Campaigns Promoting Parenthood : Russia initiated a “sex-at-work” campaign to boost birth rates amid demographic decline.
-
Raising Retirement Age : China has increased the retirement age to maintain a larger working population.
-
Housing and Education Support : China offers assistance with housing and education to alleviate economic pressures on families.
-
These strategies reflect global efforts to counteract population decline and ensure sustainable development.
Countries with the Oldest Populations as of 2023 and the Global Rise in Aging Demographics
In 2023, Japan led major nations with 29.56% of its population aged 65 or older. Meanwhile, Italy and Finland followed closely, highlighting Europe’s rapidly aging population trend.
By 2050, the World Health Organization projects that 80% of the global elderly population will reside in low- and middle-income countries. To address this, the United Nations initiated the “Decade of Healthy Ageing” (2021–2030) to enhance older individuals’ well-being.
Table 4: The Aging Population of Major Countries
Future Projections and Strategies to Address Declining Populations
-
Global Population Trends : The United Nations projects the world population to peak at approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s, followed by a gradual decline to around 10.2 billion by 2100.
-
Regional Variations : While countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are experiencing population declines due to low fertility rates, nations in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to see significant population growth, potentially doubling by 2100.
-
Economic Implications : Declining populations can lead to labor shortages, increased healthcare costs, and challenges in sustaining economic growth.
-
Policy Measures : To counteract these trends, countries are implementing policies such as offering financial incentives for families, promoting work-life balance, and encouraging immigration to bolster the workforce.
-
Global Initiatives : The United Nations has declared 2021–2030 as the “Decade of Healthy Ageing,” aiming to improve the lives of older people and address the challenges of an aging population.
-
Addressing declining populations requires a multifaceted approach, combining national policies with international cooperation to ensure sustainable demographic and economic futures.
Web Resources on Countries with Declining Population
1. World Population Review: Countries with declining population
2. Statista: Countries with lowest fertility rates
3. CIA.Gov: Net migration rates
4. Statista: Population aged 65 by country/
Final Words
As these countries grapple with the silent crisis of population decline, the implications extend beyond mere numbers—affecting economies, social structures, and global dynamics. Understanding these trends is crucial for shaping resilient futures. For now, the challenges are great, but the innovative spirit of governments and communities worldwide remains a beacon of hope. We value your feedback, please share your thoughts about this article that help us to improve this article. Thank You for Reading!
Questions and answers related to this article:
Population decline may reduce strain on resources and ease environmental pressures, but it poses serious economic and geopolitical risks. Shrinking labor forces can hinder economic productivity, burden social welfare systems, and lead to declining global influence. Nations with dwindling populations often face strategic vulnerabilities, requiring adjustments in defense, diplomacy, and migration policy. In global power dynamics, demographic strength remains a critical factor for national competitiveness and influence.
The U.S. population is not yet declining but is experiencing slowed growth due to lower birth rates and restricted immigration. The 2020s have seen the slowest population growth in nearly a century. This trend raises concerns about future workforce shortages, economic stagnation, and diminished global competitiveness. Policymakers are debating immigration reform and family-friendly policies to address these challenges and maintain the U.S.’s geopolitical and economic leadership.
As of 2025, the current world human population is estimated at approximately 8.1 billion. While growth continues in parts of Africa and South Asia, many developed nations are experiencing stagnation or decline. This uneven growth pattern significantly impacts geopolitics, influencing migration trends, labor markets, global trade, and international aid priorities. The demographic divide is expected to reshape global alliances and economic power over the coming decades.
By 2050, countries like Japan, South Korea, Italy, and China are projected to experience significant population shrinkage. This demographic decline could result in reduced economic output, challenges in defense manpower, and shifts in global influence. For example, China may face strategic disadvantages as its workforce ages rapidly, possibly affecting its long-term geopolitical ambitions and economic dominance in Asia and beyond.
South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Italy currently have the fastest declining birth rates. South Korea holds the world’s lowest fertility rate, with fewer than 1 child per woman. These declining birth rates lead to aging societies, labor shortages, and long-term fiscal stress. From a geopolitical standpoint, these trends threaten national resilience and economic sustainability, prompting nations to adopt aggressive natalist and immigration policies to reverse demographic decline.
Countries fear population decline due to its far-reaching economic and strategic implications. A shrinking and aging population reduces labor force participation, weakens domestic markets, and strains public pensions and healthcare systems. Geopolitically, reduced population often translates into diminished influence, less military capacity, and a weakened role in international institutions. Nations like China, Japan, and Germany are actively seeking solutions to maintain their strategic positioning amid demographic decline.
Japan is a prime example of a country with a negative population growth rate, having lost over half a million people annually in recent years. Eastern European nations like Bulgaria and Latvia also exhibit negative growth. This trend is alarming for national security, economic viability, and global leverage. Countries with shrinking populations often struggle to maintain economic competitiveness and must redesign social policies to cope with rapid aging and urban depopulation.
The 10 countries with the lowest population in 2025 include Vatican City, Tuvalu, Nauru, Palau, San Marino, Monaco, Liechtenstein, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Marshall Islands, and Dominica. These nations often face unique challenges such as limited economic scalability, reliance on foreign aid, and susceptibility to external geopolitical pressures. However, their small size sometimes allows for diplomatic agility and niche influence in international forums like the United Nations.
Global population decline could disrupt economic growth, alter migration patterns, and shift geopolitical power balances. Countries with aging populations may face labor shortages, increased healthcare costs, and declining consumer demand. These factors affect global trade flows, innovation, and defense strategies. Furthermore, demographic shifts may lead to a reorientation of international alliances, with younger, faster-growing countries gaining more influence in global governance and economic decision-making.
Population decline undermines economic growth by reducing the available workforce and domestic demand. As fewer people enter the labor market, productivity and innovation may decline, while aging populations increase public spending on healthcare and pensions. This demographic imbalance pressures governments to reform tax, immigration, and welfare policies. In the long term, sustained population decline can erode a nation’s economic power and diminish its influence in international markets and diplomacy.
Effective policies to address falling population rates include comprehensive family support systems, such as subsidized childcare, parental leave, and financial incentives for larger families. Additionally, promoting work-life balance and ensuring affordable housing can encourage higher birth rates. Immigration policies that attract skilled workers also help mitigate population decline. Countries like France and Sweden have successfully implemented such measures, resulting in stabilized or increased fertility rates.
Governments can implement strategies such as enhancing family-friendly policies, offering financial incentives for childbirth, and investing in childcare infrastructure. Encouraging workforce participation through flexible work arrangements and supporting gender equality in employment can also boost birth rates. Additionally, adopting selective immigration policies to attract young, skilled workers helps counteract demographic decline.
A declining population in developed countries can lead to labor shortages, reduced economic growth, and increased pressure on social welfare systems due to a higher dependency ratio. Additionally, it may result in decreased innovation and competitiveness on the global stage. Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive policy responses to sustain economic vitality and social stability.
Demographic decline can undermine national security by reducing the pool of military recruits and weakening economic foundations essential for defense capabilities. An aging population may divert resources toward healthcare and pensions, limiting investments in infrastructure and technology. This shift can diminish a nation’s global influence and hinder its ability to respond effectively to international challenges.
Countries experiencing population decline worry about economic contraction due to a shrinking workforce, leading to reduced productivity and consumer demand. This scenario can strain public finances as fewer workers support a growing number of retirees, potentially resulting in higher taxes and decreased public services. Addressing these demographic challenges is crucial to maintain economic stability and growth.
India and China, as the world’s most populous nations, exert significant influence on global politics through economic growth, military expansion, and diplomatic initiatives. Their large labor forces and markets attract international investment, while their geopolitical strategies shape regional and global power dynamics. The rise of these countries is leading to a multipolar world order, challenging traditional Western dominance.
Global population growth intensifies competition for essential resources like water, food, and energy, leading to potential conflicts and necessitating international cooperation. This pressure influences international policies focused on sustainable development, environmental conservation, and equitable resource distribution to ensure stability and prevent resource-driven disputes.
Demographic decline in Western countries leads to aging populations and shrinking workforces, potentially reducing economic productivity and innovation. In contrast, emerging economies with younger, growing populations can leverage this demographic advantage to boost economic growth and enhance geopolitical influence, thereby shifting global power dynamics.